Southeast Gross Domestic Product was $3.8tn in 2015
Southeast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased to $3.8tn in 2015 from $1.8tn in 1997, a 108% increase over this 18 year period. The Southeast accounted for 21% of the national economy in 2015. The government sector made up 14% of the GDP, and the private sector 86%, split 67% from the service sector and 19% from the goods-producing sector. In dollar terms, the service sector GDP was $2.6tn, the goods sector $727bn and the government sector $527bn in 2015.
Southeast Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.1%p.a. from 1997 to 2015
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Southeast Gross Domestic Product was 4.1%p.a. from 1997 to 2015, just below the national average of 4.2%p.a. Compared to the other regions, the Southeast ranked 4th of eight for the full period of 1997 to 2015, and this middle of the road performance was evident in all three of the sectors. Service GDP CAGR was 4.6%p.a. (USA 4.5%), government GDP CAGR was 4.1%p.a. (USA the same) and the goods-producing sector GDP grew by 2.7% (USA 3.2%).
Greater insights into the momentum behind the Southeast regional economy are revealed when the CAGR% are calculated for the three very distinctive periods in the 1997 to 2015 time period, namely:
1997 to 2007: The Pre-Recession Years
2008 to 2009: The Great Recession Years
2010 to 2015: The Post-Recession Years
Pre-recession the Southeast economy grew by 5.6%p.a.
In the pre-recession period the Southeast Gross Domestic Product grew by 5.6%p.a. (USA 5.4%), which ranked 4th of the eight regions behind the Southwest, Far West and Rocky Mountain regions. All four of these regions ranked in the top four for CAGR growth in the service, goods and government sectors prior to the recession. The service sector grew 6.1%p.a. (USA 5.6%), the government sector by 5.6%p.a. (USA 5.3%) and the goods sector by 4.3%p.a. (USA 4.6%).
Southeast Gross Domestic Product fell by 0.4%p.a. for 2008-09
During the Great Recession years, the Southeast GDP did fall by 0.4%p.a. compared to a decline of 0.2%p.a. nationally and ranked 5th overall. The service sector increased by 0.1%p.a. (USA 0.4%) but the goods-producing sector fell by 5.1%p.a. (USA decline of 5%). The government sector GDP outperformed in the recession years by growing 4.3%p.a. compared to 4%p.a. nationally.
The Southeast region has found it hard to recover in the post-recession period, and ranked 7th for GDP CAGR, just ahead of New England.
Nationally GDP grew by 3.8%p.a. post-recession but in the Southeast it only grew by 3.3%p.a. and all three sectors under-performed. The service sector GDP grew by 3.8%p.a (USA 4.2%), the goods sector by 2.9%p.a (3.7%) and the government sector by 1.5%p.a. (USA 2%).
The Southeast ranked 7th for GDP growth since the recession
In conclusion, the Southeast performance over the period is mixed when compared to the other regions. Pre-recession the top four regions for GDP growth were the Rocky Mountain, Southwest, Far West, and Southeast. Post-recession, the Southwest and Far West remain the top two regions, but the Rocky Mountain and Southeast regions have slipped to 4th and 7th respectively. In both cases the goods-producing sector has not recovered post-recession as well as it has in other regions. The goods sector share of Southeast Gross Domestic Product fell to 19% by 2015 from 24.4% in 1997.
There are twelve states in the Southeast economy and further analysis by industry and state will reveal more insights in later posts.
To see the same posts for the other regions, here are the links
Gross Domestic Product data is sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is up to date as of June 20th 2017.
